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Sunday, August 21, 2011

Patch 4.3 Transmogrification: Profitable Or Not?

WoW Transmogrification: Proceed With Caution

Patch 4.3 Transmogrification

Transmogrification is coming to World of Warcraft in Patch 4.3.  Transmogrification will allow WoW players to modify the appearance of their armor and weapons to look like another piece of gear.  The Transmogrified item will retain the stats and only the appearance will change.  The kicker is that in order to Transmogrify to a certain look, you must actually possess the piece of gear that you are wanting your current gear to look like (or Transmogrify into). 

In order for a rogue to appear as if in a full set of Bloodfang gear, you have to own all of the Bloodfang set pieces.  This is a major limiting factor for players who don't have old tier set items and obsolete gear already in storage.  The big question is whether there will exist a viable and profitable market for selling gear to players for Transmogrification purposes.  Transmogrification and Void Storage are both coming in Patch 4.3 and to me the main benefit is that they are both gold sinks desiged to remove excess gold from the World of Warcraft economy.

Profiting Off Of Transmogrifiers?

Some other bloggers are speculating over the possibilities of selling specific armor and weapons after Patch 4.3 for the sole purpose of Transmogrification.  If players are out trying to make their characters look as "cool" or "awesome" as possible, then it is possible that some profit could be made supply this Transmogrification niche.  Will it be worth it?  In my opinion, No.  Trying to supply the Transmogrification niche will be a waste of time and resources. Why do I feel this way?
  1. Most "cool, uber, awesome" looking gear is Bind on Pick-Up.
  2. Patch 4.3 is weeks away and future Transmogrifiers are already starting to collect their own Transmogrification appearance gear.
  3. What is cool, sexy, or awesome is an individual preference based on an individual's opinion.
  4. Trying to determine what BoE items will be desired by Transmogrifiers is near impossible since everyone's opinions are different.
  5. Some players will be looking for items simply based on color to match their gear.  There is no way to cater to this Transmogrification sub-niche. 
  6. Some of the desired gear will be more profitable to be Disenchanted.  (Beastmaster set piece vs. a Large Brilliant Shard)
Transmogrification Niche Is A Waste

I wouldn't waste much time or resources on this Transmogrification niche at all.  As efficient auction house goblins, we seek out item to sell that continue to bring us sales because we know there is a demand for those items.  With Transmogrification there isn't much guaranteed demand or associated profit.  We simply have no way of knowing what players will be shopping for just to use as a Transmogrification target.  Don't waste your time or effort on this Transmogrification niche unless certain craftable or easily farmable items see a demand spike after Patch 4.3.  I doubt such demand spike will even be noticable or very profitable.  We make gold on the WoW auction house with more sure-fire bets and Transmogrification gear is a very long shot.

Example of Individuality

After Patch 4.3, I will set out to collect all gold colored gear on my twink, Goldgrub.  His gear is already half gold colored thanks to the BoA pieces.  Transmogrification will allow me to walk around in a full gold colored set.  Since I am going to be shopping for Transmogrify options based purely on color, you have no idea how to cater to my wants and desires.  That is unless you are going to be stocking multiple pieces of gear in multiple colors just to cater to this sub-niche. 

Ok, so I found my gold colored wrist gear, but it's not "cool enough" for me, so I continue shopping.  See how impossible this market is to determine?  Think smart and don't waste your time or resources catering to the upcoming Transmogrification addition to World of Warcraft.

Anyone disagree?  Think you have found the secret Transmogrification gold mine?
What pieces do you speculate are going to be sellable and in demand?


Enjoy The Posts Here at Cold's Gold Factory? Check Out Cold's Mysterious Fortune Card Mastery Gold Making Guide To Get You Started. This Guide Can Be Applied To Multiple Markets Not Just Barking MFCs.

14 comments:

  1. I disagree, to some extent. There are some pieces of BOE armor with unique (and desirable) models or in specific colors that may be popular transmogrification targets. http://www.wowhead.com/item=2955, for example, is a rare model. http://www.wowhead.com/item=10187 seems desirable for rogues (I know I want one.) We're not talking insane profits here, but there are opportunities out there for some returns on smart buys.

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  2. This won't be a market I dabble in. I'm more interested in obtaining the T6 set for my priest and I think it would be pretty funny for my mage's sword to look like a King's Defender. The items I would use all come from raids.

    Updog

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  3. Some items could appear specially cheap during the "$farming spree"

    Large Brilliant
    Illusion Dust
    Green items
    alot of runecloth
    Recipes/Enchants/PLans...

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  4. While I do agree with your Fortune Card Mastery strategy, Cold, I actually disagree with your strategy here regarding transmogrification being something to avoid.

    I do agree it's not a sustainable market over time, but there absolutely - without a doubt - will be an opportunity to make gold during the transition of players transmogrifying their pieces. You just have to do some homework.

    To your points, Cold...

    1) Yes, some of the most desirable gear is BOP. But the majority of it will require multiple players in order to acquire. We know from history that when something requires significant effort to obtain, there is a majority population that simply won't go through the effort because they don't have time. They'll stick to what they can acquire from the AH. Therein lies opportunity #1, you will have potential customers.

    2) Yes, people are already starting to acquire their gear for transmogrification. Some of the most desirable gear, however, is near impossible to obtain and best vultured from the AH and resold for 2x-4x the price. Take, for example, Teebu's Blazing Longsword and the Blade of Wizardry, two items which have largely been considered Jedi lightsabers for RP purposes for years. These items, along with a number of unique skins that are BoE are sitting on the AH for less than 10k on most servers, and will likely sell for much higher. Some servers which have taken notice are already selling the pirate swords, ninja swords, lightsabers, shovels, etc. at exorbitant prices to capitalize on their RP nature. So while I agree the majority of items will be BoP, there is opportunity to be made with the limited amount of BoE items currently available. Just purchase and resell before other AHers catch on.

    3) Yes, what is 'cool, sexy, etc.' is individual preference. But if you do your homework, a number of key BoE items have largely been considered the best RP items for years (see above). Therefore, individual preference for these items has a long, robust history of interest already. So there IS a way to determine individual preference of SOME players. So read up on your RP items and go from there.

    4) While I agree it IS impossible to determine ALL the preferences of players, it is also is absolutely possible to determine the preferences of a minority of these players with the RP realm of items referred to above. This is like homebuyers looking for a pool. Sure, a house with a pool isn't for everybody, but those that DO want a pool (i.e. a samurai sword, etc.) will pay top dollar to get it.

    5) Yes, some players will simply want color to match their gear. But Cold, buddy, I think you're another minority - one I'm not going to pay attention to here. The angle of opportunity with transmogrification is RP - not design and aesthetics.

    6) If you're comparing disenchanting value versus what you could make with the gear, you're not targeting the right gear. If you follow the RP model, certain items will have significant value and you'd be a fool to disenchant something like the Defias armor set, when you could turn it for probably 10x-20x the profit for its vanity/RP value.

    So again, this is a minority market of buyers - similar to those acquiring mounts, vanity pets, etc. Target the right items, follow the RP themes and you could make a killing in 4.3.

    -Keelhaul

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  5. @Keelhaul

    Good points and ideas. My question is this. Do you think RP items will have value on non-RP WoW servers? The majority of servers are non-RP servers. Teebu's is already rare and expensive. The value may go up, but the odds of even obtaining one are still very rare.

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  6. @Backtheif

    I agree. I am definately watching for market flooding of farmed items.

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  7. @Cold

    Yes, RP items will have value on non-RP servers. Two reasons:

    1) I've rolled toons on a number of PvP and PvE servers, and there is always a market for RP and persona-based items on these servers.

    2) WoW is already somewhat RP to begin with (that's not actually an image of you onscreen that you're controlling). The baseline for this is a form of escapism that in a nutshell means most players are already partially wired to want to customize their onscreen character in a certain fashion. All it will take is a little push.

    Teebu is probably one of the top 10 exceptions to both sides of speculation here, because of its rarity. But if you check out Power Word Gold, I've posted a number of tips over there as well that list items that you can walk out and purchase today from vendors in limited quantities.

    I'll post again if my theories prove effective. Stay tuned.

    -Keel

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  8. The black mageweave set is the only set I'm seriously thinking about trying to get into, the main reason being the pants - since they are pretty much underwear they are going to be pants that will be easy to get for people that don't want to have pants showing under certain outfits (i.e The Vestments of the Shifting Sands). The mats are ridiculously easy so it won't be that big of a deal to me if it doesn't pan out. But all in all I'm anxious to see what becomes popular.

    I am holding on to some world drop BOE's that I have now, in hopes that their prices will go up since some of them have interesting models.

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  9. Quail here, long time reader, first time commenter,

    You are really underestimating the value of RP items on non-RP realms, especially when this new feature for Wow is based on making you look cooler.

    PvPer's and hard core PvEer's alike will want to show off their best gear from their best periods of playing the game.

    There are plenty of posts on "jmtc" to explain why even on non-RP realms, RP gear is valuable. Once again I'm very disappointed in your inability to analyze the auction house.

    Something came to me this week as I read yet another series of posts from you that seemed to be all speculation: Are you still playing Wow on a live realm? Are you busy in real life or something? You seem out of touch and guessing at EVERYTHING... or writing about star wars old republic...

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  10. @Quail

    Yes, I play on a live realm, but not as much over this summer due to my work schedule and working 60+ hour weeks.

    I disagree with the whole notion of catering to players for Transmogrification. It's a waste of time and materials in my opinion. I won't be selling gear for asthetic reasons alone as it isn't worth my game time, which is currently very limited.

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  11. As a complete RP ignoramus, all I can say to you Cold, is don't write it off completely! I play a mid pop, normal PVE realm & some people are already looking for specific items by asking in trade. Some of my guildies are fascinated by the whole idea of transmogrification & even I have spent hours over the weekend looking at various items with a whole new viewpoint.

    My initial strategy for now is to check stuff out in the 'changing room' thing whilst I'm in the AH - certain sets are very sexy/ominous/shiny etc & even those will have great appeal for many of the less knowledgable players. Once you get a few 'tricked out' players wandering in SW or Org, there will be a mini flood of interest, at least, that's what I think.

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  12. At the very least, armor and weapon crafters should be stocking up on patterns. You will see many people looking for certain items and if you can't make them then you don't get the tip. Not to mention that creative barking will draw people that wouldn't even think of this service – there are many people out there who just don't know how cool some of the older items are and will buy them on impulse. Vanilla and BC mats cost will probably go up a bit in support of these items too. You could also host GKP runs.

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  13. As an avid recipe collector, I already have most all recipes and have no need to go grinding or shopping for patterns. I do both of those daily already and have been for 6+ years.

    I also figured that barking was going to be required since most people will need help being pointed in what is BoE and they can buy to look "cool". Still think it is all way to based on personal preference and its much simpler to just wait until Transmogrification is released and then jump on any bandwagons that becoming popular.

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  14. I strongly disagree, whilst I am certain making gold of items based on color is going to be difficult to predict or provide for, I am however certain that MASSIVE profits are to be made off armor sets and items, for example the Scarlet armor set, firemane leggings and various weapons.

    I have already started to make small stockpiles of certain weapons and armor pieces. Where I normally purchased the low level blues and epics for perhaps for a few gold (10-50) and resell for perhaps 99g-200g, I am now retaining these items in my bank and fully envisage profits of 5000g-10 000g on theses items once transmogrification hits the servers.

    I see no other result for the conservative and observant Auctioneer BUT to make a killing.

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